Democracy Our Way

The US has always been a champion of democracy and human rights, right?

It is in the mission statement of the US State Department….and I quote….

The protection of fundamental human rights was a foundation stone in the establishment of the United States over 200 years ago. Since then, a central goal of U.S. foreign policy has been the promotion of respect for human rights, as embodied in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Supporting democracy not only promotes such fundamental American values as religious freedom and worker rights, but also helps create a more secure, stable, and prosperous global arena in which the United States can advance its national interests. In addition, democracy is the one national interest that helps to secure all the others. Democratically governed nations are more likely to secure the peace, deter aggression, expand open markets, promote economic development, protect American citizens, combat international terrorism and crime, uphold human and worker rights, avoid humanitarian crises and refugee flows, improve the global environment, and protect human health. The United States uses a wide range of tools to advance a freedom agenda, including bilateral diplomacy, multilateral engagement, foreign assistance, reporting and public outreach, and economic sanctions. The Department of State works with democratic partners, international and regional organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and engaged citizens to support those seeking freedom.

Lofty ideals, right?  Too bad it is pure fantasy. We then must think about the word ‘democracy’….these days there are probably as many definitions for the term as there are hairs on my butt. Basically it is that the people have freedom to vote for the person that they want to have power over them and their families. So if the ‘will’ of the people should prevail that would be democracy. right? The people vote and the winner is the next leader to put it more simply. Lofty ideals….too bad it is BS. You would like to know why, right? These are a few of the democratically elected governments that the US overthrew for various reasons. Iran 1953–oil industry was scared they would lose their strangle hold on Iranian oil. Guatemala 1954–fruit production coup saved United Fruit and their profits. Congo 1960–worried Cuban incursion. Chile 1973–Mining concerns…. Just a few incidents where the voice of the people and their election of certain people was not adhered to by the US. There are others to be found here…. https://www.history.com/news/us-overthrow-foreign-governments Then there is the Ukraine thing….there is more there than we have been told…. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/maidan-ukraine/

The State Department’s website says that it supports and promotes democracy in a variety of areas:

• Promotion of religious freedom and tolerance
• Civil society strengthening
• Elections and the political process
• Labor rights, economic opportunity, and inclusive growth
• Independent media, press freedom, and internet freedom
• Criminal justice, law enforcement, and rule of Law
• Promotion of human rights
• Promotion of disability rights
• Promotion of women’s rights
• Fighting corruption and supporting good governance
• Justice

Sadly all those high ideals go out the window when corporate profits are in doubt. We Americans may cherish democracy but not when profits may be threatened. Personally I think that if a people elect their government then we should respect that decision and learn to work with that government for the better of the people of the nation….not what is best for corporate bottom line. But if you still hold to the idea that the US is a standard bearer for democracy then you should look at what is happening around the world. I Read, I Write, You Know “lego ergo scribo”

Selective Memories

Note:  This is not necessarily about the current mash-up in Gaza just a few observations that I have made in my many years.

I would like to reiterate that I am NOT anti-Jew, personally I do not give a shit about their religious beliefs.

This post is more about the selective memories of the American people than it is about the current situation.

WARNING:  This post may include some offensive language that may offend the sensibilities of some readers….so if you are easily offended then maybe this post is not for you.

The date is 04 November 1979….US ally Iran has had months of protests against the policies and tactics of the Shah and on this date Iranian students stormed the walls of the US embassy in Tehran breaching them and taking 52 Americans hostage which were held for 444 days until their release on 20 January 1981…..no causalities just hostages.

Since that fateful day Americans have despised anything remotely Iranian.  (There so much more to that action than just a bunch of pissed off students)

To this day they, Iran, can do nothing right in the eyes of most Americans….for they are evil.

The date is 08 June 1967….during the 6 Day war when Israel was fighting against the combined forces of the Arab nations.

The US signit ship, USS Liberty, was patrolling in the Eastern Mediterranean….when suddenly the ship was attacked by Israeli jets and gunboats….the attack left 34 American sailors dead and 174 wounded.

Yet Americans ignore this murderous attack and support Israel in everything they do….why?

If you are interested, which you are not, I have a post the has articles about this attack….fucking read them and see what our good ally is capable of doing.

https://lobotero.com/2019/06/08/remember-the-uss-liberty/

I to this day do not understand why Americans would rather ignore a barbaric murderous attack like the one Israel pulled on an American flagged unarmed ship.

A case of friendly fire?  NO!  This was no accident the cowards knew what they were attacking.  There is NO excuse for this action or the cover-up to protect an ally….NO excuse!

We recently celebrated Veterans Day with the usual fanfare…all the thanks for your service and all….to me it is all just hollow gestures….for the ignoring the veterans of the USS Liberty diminishes all our vets and the American people are doing just that.

Of course the public can make excuses like ‘we did not know’ but that is a cop-out….they do not want to know….it is important to show support for Israel than to honor fallen veterans who were doing their duty and serving their country in a time of need.

What is it that drives so many Americans to blindly, yes I said blindly, support Israel in all they do?

I know the answer….do you?

Please do not try to excuse this away for there is NO excuse for the men they killed and injured…..none whatsoever.

Again I apologize for the vulgarity of my tone….but this is something I feel strongly about….which if you read any of the reference material can understand my tone.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Idea Of Self-Determination

College of Political Knowledge

Self-determination denotes the legal right of people to decide their own destiny in the international order.  Self-determination is a core principle of international law, arising from customary international law, but also recognized as a general principle of law, and enshrined in a number of international treaties.  For instance, self-determination is protected in the United Nations Charter and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights as a right of “all peoples.” 

The scope and purpose of the principle of self-determination has evolved significantly in the 20th century.  In the early 1900’s, international support grew for the right of all people to self-determination.  This led to successful secessionist movements during and after WWI, WWII and laid the groundwork for decolonization in the 1960s. 

Contemporary notions of self-determination usually distinguish between “internal” and “external” self-determination, suggesting that “self-determination” exists on a spectrum.  Internal self-determination may refer to various political and social rights; by contrast, external self-determination refers to full legal independence/secession for the given ‘people’ from the larger politico-legal state.

Now that the much used term has been defined….let’s look at what the UN has to say on this front…..

Essentially, the right to self-determination is the right of a people to determine its own destiny. In particular, the principle allows a people to choose its own political status and to determine its own form of economic, cultural and social development. Exercise of this right can result in a variety of different outcomes ranging from political independence through to full integration within a state. The importance lies in the right of choice, so that the outcome of a people’s choice should not affect the existence of the right to make a choice. In practice, however, the possible outcome of an exercise of self-determination will often determine the attitude of governments towards the actual claim by a people or nation. Thus, while claims to cultural autonomy may be more readily recognized by states, claims to independence are more likely to be rejected by them. Nevertheless, the right to self-determination is recognized in international law as a right of process (not of outcome) belonging to peoples and not to states or governments.

The preferred outcome of an exercise of the right to self-determination varies greatly among the members of UNPO. For some of our members, the only acceptable outcome is full political independence. This is particularly true of occupied or colonized nations. For others, the goal is a degree of political, cultural and economic autonomy, sometimes in the form of a federal relationship. For others yet, the right to live on and manage a people’s traditional lands free of external interference and incursion is the essential aim of a struggle for self-determination. Other members, such as Taiwan and Somaliland, have already achieved a high-level or full self-determination, but are yet to be recognized as independent states by the international community.

https://unpo.org/article/4957

I thought is that if a people in a majority vote want to determine their own future than they should be given the right….but sadly in this world the power does no longer belong to the people but rather to money and those that control it.

An interested look at Self-determination from a post-graduate student…..https://www.e-ir.info/2014/04/17/what-is-self-determination-using-history-to-understand-international-relations/

Now that we have looked at ‘the right of self-determination’ I would appreciate your thoughts on this….

amicus populi

Watch This Blog!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“Lego ergo scribo”

Solutions–Conclusion

This is the post where I bring all this history together……the 4 parts of this post can be read here if the reader needs to get caught up…….

https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/2018/07/16/solutions-for-an-old-problem/

https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/2018/07/20/solutions-part-2/

https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/2018/07/25/solutions-part-3/

https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/2018/07/30/solutions-part-4/

In today’s world war is an ever day occurrence ….and as usual these conflicts create  massive refugee problems and since the world, most of the world, tries desperately to ignore the problem that it helped create……..the people congregate in camps with little resources and even less aid the people turn to what has been called the “world’s oldest profession”….prostitution.

Now as the conflicts rage across the Middle East many refugees have made it to safety in Europe in countries like Germany and once there they find that all is not as they hoped for in the beginning and they have to try and make ends meet…..

Migrant women are being forced to become €10-a-time prostitutes in German refugee camps, it has been reported.

The country – which is braced for around one million asylum seekers this year – has seen a spike in violence at registration centres in recent weeks as conditions deteriorate and tempers boil over.

Sex attacks are now said to be an ‘everyday event’ while in one state alone there are understood to have been 100 cases of violence in just the last three months.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3276067/Migrant-women-forced-10-time-prostitutes-German-asylum-camps-sexual-assaults-everyday-event-violent-clashes-frequently-break-out.html

Keep in mind the term “forced”…….

The conflict in Burma (Myanmar) between the state and the Muslim population have caused a humanitarian crisis….the Rohingya Muslim female population have been driven into prostitution to buy survival supplies like food…….

As Rohingya women struggle to access even the very basics such as food and water in Bangladesh’s overcrowded camps, a flourishing sex trade offers cash in times of desperation.

Four women entered the clean-swept mud hut, took off their black shawls and sat cross-legged on the floor. When asked if they sold sex, the women stirred uncomfortably and were silent.

Later, after cups of tea, the question came up again. The women caught each other’s eyes. Slowly one of them walked across the room to shut the door, another blocked the window. Darkness fell in the small, humid hut and voices turned to whispers.

“If anyone finds out what we do, they will kill us,” murmured 26-year-old Romida.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/rohingya-muslim-crisis-latest-prostitution-refugee-camps-sex-trade-black-market-bangladesh-burma-a8017256.html

Then we turn to the civil war raging in Syria that has created about a million plus refugees many on the borders of the country like in Jordan……..

Walk among the plastic tents in one corner of this sprawling, dust-swept desert camp packed with Syrian refugees, and a young woman in a white headscarf signals.

“Come in, you’ll have a good time,” suggests Nada, 19, who escaped from the southern border town of Daraa into Jordan several months ago. Her father, sporting a salt-and-pepper beard and a ……..traditional red-checkered headscarf, sits outside under the scorching sun, watching silently.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-jordan-desperate-syrian-refugees-turn-to-prostitutio

My point in all that I have written is that no matter where these charities go or where the peacekeeper go there are those that are driven to prostitution to make ends meet….then why not use these women to satisfy any carnal desires these men may have……once again this is what I posted about a report of sexual abuse by MSF

Doctors Without Borders

My look into the military and prostitution was a bit of an eye opener…..again I am not advocating the use of force in ny way shape or form…..but it there is a solution to the amount of reported attacks on women by soldiers and/or peacekeepers……this is NOT a perfect world and there is NO perfect solution to the problems I have described.

As always I try to give a solution to problems instead of just bitching about them……those “solutions” are not always popular.

Side Note:  There has been a debate raging for decades on whether to legalize prostitution or not…..for those interested I have posted a link to that debate…..an interesting debate and a debate that needs to be had at the highest levels…….there are many aspects to the subject and most have been debated on referenced site…….read what has been said and let me know you thoughts……..

https://prostitution.procon.org/

Thanx for bearing with me on this trip through history…….chuq

Geopolitical Sins

World events can be traced to the psuedo science of Geopolitics…..all international situations can be written off as tricks of the trade.

But then who knows the actual definition of geopolitics?

Geopolitics is the study of the effects of geography on international politics and international relations. Geopolitics is a method of foreign policy analysis which seeks to understand, explain, and predict international political behaviour primarily in terms of geographical variables. Typical geographical variables are the physical location, size, climate, topography, demography, natural resources, and technological advances of the state being evaluated. Traditionally, the term has applied primarily to the impact of geography on politics, but its usage has evolved over the past century to encompass wider connotations. Geopolitics traditionally studies the links between political power and geographic space, and examines strategic prescriptions based on the relative importance of land power and sea power in world history. The geopolitical tradition had some consistent concerns with geopolitical correlations of power in world politics, the identification of international core areas, and the relationships between naval and terrestrial capabilities. Academically, the study of geopolitics analyses geography, history, and social science with reference to spatial politics and patterns at various scales. Also, the study of geopolitics includes the study of the ensemble of relations between the interests of international political actors, interests focused to an area, space, geographical element or ways, relations which create a geopolitical system. Geopolitics is multidisciplinary in scope, and includes all aspects of the social sciences—with particular emphasis on political geography, international relations, the territorial aspects of political science and international law.

(Freebase)

The US is losing its grip on diplomacy…..

Mike Pompeo, the newly-confirmed Secretary of State, announced to his new workforce that together they would “get our swagger back,” an unspoken but clear reference to the rock-bottom morale in Foggy Bottom during the tenure of his predecessor, Rex Tillerson. While Pompeo may see the Department of State’s doldrums as related solely to the management-style of his predecessor, Ronan Farrow argues persuasively in The War on Peace: The End of Diplomacy and the Decline of American Influence, that the department’s declining capacity and gradual exclusion from policy making began long before Tillerson’s ill-fated “restructuring” or what he sees as the militaristic inclinations of the forty-fifth president.

Farrow served in the State Department under the late Richard Holbrooke in his ill-fated quest for peace in Afghanistan, and those years inform the narrative of The War on Peace. Winner of the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for his investigation into Harvey Weinstein, Farrow turns his precocious investigative talents and punchy writing towards the long decline of the State Department and American diplomacy.

https://mwi.usma.edu/cataclysmic-event-gradual-erosion-decline-us-diplomatic-power/

One main problem is that the US has learned absolutely nothing from its many wars…..we keep stepping in the manure time after time…..

It’s time for the Washington foreign-policy establishment to consider the seemingly unthinkable: perpetual foreign-military operations and occupations do not enhance American national security and economic prosperity.

Overwhelming evidence—currently on painful display in Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen —reveals the stark reality that these operations drain our nation of critical resources, produces a slow-bleed of U.S. troops, and deteriorates our ability to respond to potentially existential battles in the future. Changes must be urgently made if we are to reverse this negative condition.

It’s time for the Washington foreign-policy establishment to consider the seemingly unthinkable: perpetual foreign-military operations and occupations do not enhance American national security and economic prosperity.

Overwhelming evidence—currently on painful display in Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen —reveals the stark reality that these operations drain our nation of critical resources, produces a slow-bleed of U.S. troops, and deteriorates our ability to respond to potentially existential battles in the future. Changes must be urgently made if we are to reverse this negative condition.

After the catalyzing and emotionally powerful attacks that struck America on 9/11, a succession of U.S. presidents and senior officials have settled into the belief that the only way to handle difficult international problems is to use lethal military force.

This tendency has become so deeply ingrained that even the consideration of using nonlethal means to address tough problems is almost reflexively dismissed as appeasement.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/foreign-policy-failure-america-has-not-learned-its-wars-25607

AS a foreign policy wonk I worry about our lack of a diplomatic mission worldwide……this situation could put America in the backseat of any international situations…..not a good place to be….all of our hard work since WW1 is going for naught……can we return to glory or will it be the end of “American Exceptionalism”?

(Please do not use the recent North Korea deal as proof of a diplomatic mission….)

Democracy Comes To Iraq

Post Updated…..

For the first time in almost 15 years there is a bit of a calm in Iraq….ISIS has been all but destroyed and in the calm an election broke out…..a democratic norm has brought some unexpected news.

The US was behind the scenes helping Abadi with the campaign to become the PM again……that work brought about nothing that it had intended.

The worldwide populist revolt toppling conventional politicians in the United States, Europe and even the Philippines has now reached Iraq. Most Westerners still following Iraqi politics assumed that incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s Dawa Party would handily win the parliamentary election, but nope. Dawa came in third. Firebrand cleric Moqtada al Sadr’s Sairun party came in first.

You remember Moqtada al Sadr. He’s the guy who mounted an Iranian-backed Shia insurgency against the United States, the Iraqi government and his Sunni civilian neighbors between 2003 and 2008. He’s a very different person today. He still raises and shakes his fist in the air but today he’s shaking it at crooked elites, and he’s shaking it at his former Iranian patrons.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/populist-revolt-reaches-iraq

When the election took place I wrote on my other blog, In Saner Thought, about the outcome……

Iraqi Elections

Democracy Comes To Iraq?

It seems that the foe of American occupation, Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Shia militia that fought the US for a couple of years…but will this mean for te way forward for Iraq?

The emerging vote tallies are just the beginning of government formation in Iraq, and they indicate a need to focus on U.S. principles, not specific outcomes.

Despite an evidently strong showing by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sairoon alliance in Iraq’s May 12 vote, “hot takes” are particularly useless for Iraqi elections, because the public itself does not directly elect the prime minister and his cabinet, and because the process is long and winding.

Instead, the 329 parliamentarians appoint the prime minister by drawing together any 165 seats, regardless of their party affiliation and pre-electoral alignment. This means everything remains in play the day after the polls close, and quite possibly for months to come. If the government takes as long to form as it did in 2014, the cabinet will be appointed September 20, 2018. If government formation takes the 289 days it did in 2010, the new cabinet would be seated February 25, 2019. The most likely outcome this time may be somewhere between the two, with a new government landing in November 2018.

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2018/05/20/iraq_elections_and_us_interests_taking_the_long_view_112803.html

Another turn that is making regional news is that the Saudis are trying to regain their influence in Iraq……

Saudi Arabia is re-engaging with Iraq after nearly a quarter-century of broken ties. The rapprochement began in 2016, sharply accelerated in mid-2017 and stands to move even faster after Iraq’s general elections in May 2018, particularly if politicians open to reconnecting with Saudi Arabia succeed in forming a government. Riyadh’s strategy is to ride a wave of Iraqi national pride, reinvest economically and build relationships across ethnic and confessional lines. If its objective is to roll back Iran’s influence in Iraq, however, it will find that many Iraqis – even those who are critical of Iran’s overweening influence – view that as a red line, a way of turning their country back into an arena of regional combat. If it moves too fast and favours infusions of cash over carefully calibrated and targeted economic assistance, it will fuel rather than curb rampant corruption. And it will need to silence sectarian rhetoric to reach out across Iraq’s ethnic and religious spectrum.

Iraqis from various political, confessional and social groups say they welcome the apparent course change. In part, their enthusiasm stems from necessity. The new relationship comes amid a rare international consensus that the calm in Iraq must be consolidated, lest the country regress into violent conflict. The Islamic State (ISIS) has been purged from most Iraqi territory, national pride is swelling and investor confidence is up. Yet if the government and its partners cannot produce a tangible peace dividend, secure liberated areas, and end a cycle of sectarian and ethnic retribution, those gains could easily be reversed. Western partners have already started walking back their financial commitments, hoping their Gulf allies will fill the gap.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iraq/186-saudi-arabia-back-baghdad

Will this prove to be useful in the divide between the twp branches of Islam…..Sadr is Shia, MbS is Sunni……they have been at each others throats since the 8th century AD and now we are to believe that the future king od the Saudis will make nice with the Shia?

Keep in mind that Iraq will still have to ask for Iranian blessings for the new government…..

If Haider al-Abadi retains the Iraqi premiership, he will have done so with Iran’s blessing. Iran and Iraq have maintained good relations throughout Abadi’s tenure. Abadi owes Iran and the Popular Mobilization Units, including those backed by Tehran, for their decisive role in responding to the ill-fated Iraqi Kurdish referendum last year, a huge win for Abadi.

Abadi may not be the first choice among Iran’s leaders, but they have a well-established working relationship. Abadi also depends on Washington, but Tehran will likely be the last stop on the road to a new government in Iraq

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/new-iraq-government-iranian-blessing-abadi-soleimani.html

As per normal the US will meddle in the Iraqi government…..

As parliamentarians in Baghdad work to form a new governing coalition in the wake of this month’s elections, their counterparts in Washington are seeking to sanction more than a dozen of the Iraqi legislators over their links to Iran.

The House of Representatives unanimously voted last week on legislation requiring President Donald Trump to sanction “persons that are officials, agents, affiliates of or owned and controlled by” two prominent Iran-backed militias that operate in Iraq and Syria. The amendment from Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, to a must-pass annual defense authorization bill targets Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, both of which are part of the Shiite-led Popular Mobilization Units battling the Islamic State.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/congress-target-winners-iraq-election.html

To me it is not possible that Iraq will be a stable democracy….at least not right now….but I will watch and amend my opinion if it becomes necessary…..

North Korea

My normal region of focus is the Middle East…..I never studied other regions much at all….but since North Korea and the world are having a good shouting match I have decided my horizons.

The news these days is fascinating…..one day it is Russia….the next DACA…..the next North Korea….all this while two or three major conflicts are being fought daily with little notice.

As it is today we have two macho bullies showing who has the biggest penis.

North Korea in the last couple of years has exploded several large nuke weapons and fired off many missiles to show their resolve…..and of course as a retort the US has shown its cajones by threatening all sorts of retaliation.

Their latest missile firing has indicated that they are progressing well and has struck the fear of the spirits in Japan…..

President Trump on Wednesday followed up on his “all options are on the table” warning to North Korea by suggesting that negotiations are not one of those options. “The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years,” he tweeted. “Talking is not the answer!” It’s not clear what Trump means by “extortion money,” notes the New York Times. The new warning follows the North’s decision to fire a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time, and an analysis at 38 North sees a potentially “ominous” clue in the test results: The missile flew a relatively short distance of about 1,700 miles. It’s possible engineers deliberately shut down the engine early, but the distance (and reports of the missile breaking into three pieces) suggests a more troubling possibility: Pyongyang is testing something called a “post-boost vehicle” on the missile.

PBVs are standard on US and Russian ICBMs, explains Michael Elleman, because they not only provide an added boost for the payload (some kind of warhead), they also provide for more accuracy. If the North had tested the missile with a PBV, and the test failed, the distance traveled would make sense. If that’s the case, “it is another sign that Pyongyang is deadly serious about developing and fielding nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the US mainland, and critical US military bases in the Pacific Ocean,” writes Elleman, who thinks North Korea is a year or two away from posing a credible threat to the US. Meanwhile, the Navy shot down a medium-range ballistic missile during a test off Hawaii, reports NBC News. “We will continue developing ballistic missile defense technologies to stay ahead of the threat as it evolves,” says a Pentagon official.

Of course the word coming out of the US is that any attempt to strike an ally would be shear suicide for NK.

But would it be suicide?  What would the US be willing to sacrifice?  LA?  Maybe Chicago?

“Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a US military base in the region? Probably not,” nuclear strategy specialist Vipin Narang tells the AP. And that’s exactly the calculation that gives North Korea a small shot at “winning” in a nuclear conflict, challenging the assumption that launching a nuclear weapon would be automatic suicide for the country. If North Korea feels threatened to the point of using a nuclear weapon, a first target would likely be a US military base in Japan; North Korea would then use its long-range nukes to threaten the US mainland and avoid a retaliatory strike. Experts say this is Kim Jong Un’s “theory of victory”—one that President Trump may be attempting to combat with an unsuccessful version of the “madman strategy.”

Trump said “all options are on the table.” This was, all things considered, a “measured” response from the president, according to the Atlantic. It was an official statement instead of a tweet, didn’t threaten “fire and fury,” and avoided calling Kim Jong Un a “wack job.”

While this situation is being mulled over by the “experts”……and then NK set off what is being called an “H-Bomb”……..(new twist)……

North Korea detonated a thermonuclear device Sunday in its sixth and most powerful nuclear test to date, which it called a “perfect success” as its neighbors condemned it. Though the strength of the blast is undetermined, the artificial earthquake it caused was several times stronger than tremors generated by previous tests. It reportedly shook buildings in China and Russia. The test was carried out at 12:29pm local time at the Punggye-ri site where North Korea has conducted nearly all of its nuclear tests. Seoul put the magnitude at 5.7, while the USGS said it was 6.3. North Korea’s state-run television reported Sunday that Kim Jong Un attended a meeting of the ruling party’s presidium and signed the go-ahead order. Earlier in the day, the party’s newspaper printed photos of Kim examining what it said was a nuclear warhead being fitted onto the nose of an ICBM.

North Korea in July test-launched two ICBMs believed to be capable of reaching the mainland US, reports the AP; this is the North’s first nuclear test since President Trump assumed office. The North claimed the device was a thermonuclear weapon—commonly called an H-bomb. That could be hard to independently confirm. It said the underground test site did not leak radioactive materials, which would make such a determination even harder. The North claims the device was made domestically and has explosive power that can range from tens to hundreds of kilotons. Outside experts suggested the yield might be in that ballpark, though closer to the lower range. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a 15-kiloton yield. Kim, according to the state-run KCNA, claimed all components of the device were domestically produced, which he said means the North can make “as many as it wants.”

What does that mean?

In military planning “all options” are always on the table….matters not the region…all angles must be covered.

Trump’s world becomes a bit more dangerous with each passing Tweet.

Crisis In The Making

With the events in India taking front stage….I wrote about the situation on my other blog, In Saner Thought…….in case you may have been busy and missed the piece……

Source: The Mysterious Sub-Continent – In Saner Thought

The subject is so interesting that I felt the need to write two op-eds on the subject…..well at least to me…..

We have the battle against ISIS…..we have North Korea flexing its muscle…..the world seems to be in turmoil……conflict upon conflict….but here is one that is so far being done under the radar of the news…..this conflict pits India against China…..a conflict that has been a sore spot since the 60’s….

Sino-China Conflict…….was a war between China and India that occurred in 1962. A disputed Himalayan border was the main pretext for war, but other issues played a role. There had been a series of violent border incidents after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, when India had granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. India initiated a Forward Policy in which it placed outposts along the border, including several north of the McMahon Line, the eastern portion of a Line of Actual Control proclaimed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1959.

Unable to reach political accommodation on disputed territory along the 3,225-kilometre-long Himalayan border,  the Chinese launched simultaneous offensives in Ladakh and across the McMahon Line on 20 October 1962. Chinese troops advanced over Indian forces in both theatres, capturing Rezang la in Chushul in the western theatre, as well as Tawang in the eastern theatre. The war ended when China declared a ceasefire on 20 November 1962, and simultaneously announced its withdrawal from one of the two disputed areas. Indian posts and patrols were removed from Aksai Chin, which came under direct Chinese control after the end of the conflict.

You see the dislike has been festering for over 50 years…..until recently it has gotten to the point of notice by the world…..

Buried in the Himalayas in the Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken’s neck, Chinese and Indian military forces sit on the respective sides of their vague borders and entrench themselves for what could become a shooting war between nuclear powers.

Both Beijing and New Delhi see the conflict as a shoving match for dominance in the Himalayas, an age-old struggle between the two states that most recently went hot in 1962, before either state had perfected nuclear bombs.

But now a Chinese construction project aiming to build a road that can support 40 ton vehicle traffic threatens a critical passage in India and risks alienating New Delhi from its ally, Bhutan.

Source: China and India are edging closer to a war in Asia that neither can back down from

But what are the areas of dispute that could bring these two nations to the point of war?

The biggest bone of contention is Tibet & Dalai Lama.
This led to the first ever war between these two nations. China is very sensitive about the territorial sovereignty and having Dalai Lama run a shadow government in India has historically been a major irritator for them.

Following Tibet are two border disputes – one in a region called Aksai Chin and another in a region called Arunachal Pradesh. Both nations claim both regions although China controls the former and India the latter. In both these places the geography favors the current arrangement. With both nations nuclear armed, it is inconceivable for any solution other than formalizing the status quo. However, both nations have a fairly noisy nationalist brigade that doesn’t want to lose face by stating that reality. Thus, the border remains unresolved leading to frequent flare up of anger. Balaji Viswanathan’s answer to Why did China invade India in 1962?

The third one and the one rapidly becoming important is the domination of Indian Ocean through a Chinese strategy termed the String of Pearls. Here is a map from that Wiki page. The stars in red circles are China’s plans for naval bases, stars in blue circles are American bases and Indian flags are Indian bases. Red circles surrounding India’s naval bases are feared by India as containment strategy.
Indian government is spending a lot of energy from preventing this from
happening. This includes both defensive punches such as pulling Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar and Bangladesh back to Indian sphere of influence and offensive punches such as a counter-containment strategy in South China sea. Vietnam And India Sign Oil, Naval Agreement Amid South China Sea Disputes, Angering Beijing. From India’s perspective, China cannot have it both ways – either both nations stick to their respective oceans or both nations get involved in both places.

The fourth bone of contention that is yet to erupt fully is water. What is the strategic significance of the Tibetan Plateau to China and India? A lot of subcontinent’s water supply comes from the Tibetan Plateau and this is one historic reason why India was uncomfortably having any hostile power control that plateau. However, as China continues to dam in the Tibetan Plateau, the water scarce subcontinent will face greater pressures. China and India are yet to have any kind of water sharing agreement.

Source: China’s Creeping Invasion of India | The Diplomat

This could be problematic for the Trump government…..these two are major trading partners….if bullets fly what will Trump do?  How will he settle this conflict?

Slogans will not work.  A campaign speech will not help.  Diplomacy is not high on the Trump agenda….so the only decision to be made is…..which side will we choose?

Who’s The Enemy Today?

Since I began writing and analyzing stuff the US has had a wide array of so-called “enemies”…..those entities that pose a problem to the American worldwide agenda.

Until the 1990’s Russia was our leading adversary….We have had Grenada, Panama, the Balkans, al-Qaeda, the Taleban, ISIS, Iraq and so many minor “enemies” and in all that time, since 1979, the one constant has been Iran.

These days there seems to be a couple constant ones also……Russia (again), the various terrorist organizations, Iran (as always) and North Korea.

I am an old fart so I can look back at recent history and see the long line of potential “enemies”….it is almost like the soup du jour…..it changes on a whim from the powers that lead.

I do a lot of reading daily and the other day I was reading a pro-Libertarian site, Hornsberger’s Blog, that was covering this ever changing landscape of “enemies”…….

…….Everyone needs to resign himself to the discomforting reality of living under a national-security state and an overseas empire: There is always going to be an official enemy or official enemies. It never ends. The process is perpetual.

How else could the Pentagon, the CIA, and the NSA justify their ever-increasing budgets, influence, and power? Official enemies are the coin of the realm. They never run out of official enemies.

Source: A Constantly Shifting Array of Official Enemies – The Future of Freedom Foundation

This “enemies” thing is a classic propaganda ploy….give the populace something or someone to fear.

This “enemies” thingy is so touchy that the advisers in the White House are debating which is which and who is who….to the point that it could become an internal civil war….

But this time the “enemies” are internal…….

An internal White House enemies list of alleged Obama loyalists to be fired early in the Trump administration is a key contributor to a long-running feud between the National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster and White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, two senior administration officials tell The Daily Beast.

Team Trump never acted on the list, the officials said, and now those employees have finished their tenure at the National Security Council and returned to their home agencies.

Source: White House ‘Enemies List’ Drove McMaster-Bannon Feud

Enemy to the Left, enemy to the Right, enemies all around…..

Not much new here…Nixon had a list…..and Clinton, Bubba not Hillary, had a list…but this White House enemies list has a different feel to it….if you know what I mean.

Here A Nuke, There A Nuke

The mash-up with North Korea should be making Americans nervous…..not that anything will happen today….but we have started down a path that could end badly for all people involved.

Recalling the hysteria of the 1950’s….the “Duck and Cover” exercises the interest in “bomb shelters”….it’s all coming full circle.

How about a quick tour of the world of nukes?

The USA has more nukes than hairs on one’s butt….like wise for Russia….then there is China, Pakistan, India, North Korea and Iran…..let’s not forget France and Israel….my point is there are a lot of nukes just waiting to be used….and we seldom talk about those nukes.

Seriously?

Just how many are there?

There are five nuclear weapon states in the world: China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. These are officially recognized as possessing such weapons by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

This treaty acknowledges and legitimizes their arsenals, but they are not supposed to build or maintain them forever. Indeed, they have committed to eliminate them.

There are also four other countries that have nuclear weapons: Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea. These countries didn’t sign the Treaty, and together possess an estimated 340 nuclear weapons.

Okay but how many are there?

Let’s count them up……there are about a total of 15,000 nukes waiting…..but a breakdown to avoid any confusion…..Russia–about 8,000….US–around 4,000……France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel less than 200 each….then there is North Korea that has 0 but the ambition for a greater role is there.

Now that we have a total…..what kind of damage are we talking about?

According to Telegraph research, it is estimated that the US and Russian arsenals combined have power equating to 6,600 megatons. This is a tenth of the total solar energy received by Earth every minute.

According to the NukeMap website, the dropping of the B-83, the largest bomb in the current US arsenal, would kill 1.4m people in the first 24 hours. A further 3.7m people would be injured, as the thermal radiation radius reached 13.km.

Likewise, the “Tsar Bomba” is the largest USSR bomb tested. If this bomb was dropped on New York, it is estimated that it could kill 7.6m people and injure 4.2m more. The nuclear fallout could reach an approximate area of 7,880km on a 15mph wind, impacting millions more people.

With all that destructive power you would think that players would be happy with their possessions, right?

Oh, Hell NO!

It appears the US has come up with a better idea…..

The future of nuclear weapons might not be huge and mega destructive but smaller, tactical, and frighteningly, more common. The U.S. Air Force is investigating more options for “variable yield” bombs  — nukes that can be dialed down to blow up an area as small as a neighborhood, or dialed up for a much larger punch.

The Air Force currently has gravity bombs that either have or can be set to low yields: less than  20 kilotons. Such a bomb dropped in the center of Washington, D.C., wouldn’t even directly affect Georgetown or Foggy Bottom. But a Minuteman III missile tipped with a 300-kiloton warhead would destroy downtown Washington and cause third-degree burns into Virginia and Maryland.

Source: US Military Eyes New Mini-Nukes for 21st-Century Deterrence – Defense One

With all this talk about nukes…..I recall the days of my youth when we would have a school drill for a nuke attack….we would crawl under our desks and put our hands over our ears and head between the knees…..now that I think about it were we “kissing our butts good-bye?”

With all the nukes now and the years to come….can we survive a true nuclear attack?

Acute radiation syndrome (ARS) results from exposure to high levels of ionizing radiation. This may be the result of an accident, such as exposure of individuals to x-ray diagnostic and therapeutic devices, or a possible large scale exposure following a nuclear facility accident (for example the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents). It may also be the result of an intentional act of terrorism, involving the use of a radiological dispersal device (i.e., dirty bomb), an improvised nuclear device, or may involve an attack on a nuclear power plant, or any number of potential nuclear scenarios. Following the 9/11 attacks, and more recently the use of non-conventional weapons and toxic industrial compounds in the Syrian civil war and in Iraq by both state and non-state actors, the possibility of intentional exposure to radiation seems to be rising. Since the primary objective of these perpetrators is to create fear and panic to the general public, and since most of the public, as well as first responders, healthcare providers, and the mass media, may have misunderstandings regarding such an event, radiation is attractive. On top of that, the shortage of available medical countermeasures (MCMs) against ARS could make it even worse. The major goals of a response plan to a radio-nuclear emergency are to protect the public, as well as the emergency personnel while performing their duties. To achieve these goals, local, regional and national resources should be brought together to address such an incident of national impact. In a radio-nuclear exposure scenario, the numbers of casualties, some with life-threatening injuries and resulting complications, may be very high. This means major challenges of assessing the precise levels of individual exposure, and possible delayed medical support and care to those who need it. In any case, these are regarded as complex and resource-intensive efforts, driving research towards approving novel MCMs against ARS. This syndrome involves life-threatening injuries especially to the hematopoietic, gastrointestinal, and the neurovascular systems. Victims exposed to high levels of ionized radiation show a prodromal phase in the first few hours following exposure, followed by a latent phase, which shortens as the radiation dose increases, and finally, develop a manifest phase. The bone marrow involvement is considered as the major contributor to mortality.

Source: Surviving a Nuclear Attack | RealClearDefense

This FYI piece started with a bang (pun not intended) and ended with a deep feeling of paranoia the closer we get to the “Nuclear Mid-Night”.